The Future of E-tail

Retail markets have changed tremendously over the last ten years – and they'll be changing even more drastically in the next decade. With e-commerce gaining even greater importance, especially in emerging markets, retailers will have to adapt quickly to meet the demands of consumers.

That's why Deutsche Post DHL initiated the “Global E-Tailing 2025” study, the first global cross-border online commerce look at what the future holds for the electronic world of shopping.

Taking four scenarios, experts make different future projections based on a detailed analysis of the most influential factors – from energy and raw material prices to technological, political and social factors to retail and consumption patterns. The scenarios also outline possible effects of changes to society’s value system by 2025. The research examined selected developed and emerging markets around the world. Trend scouts also studied purchasing and logistics trends in 12 international metropolises – among them New York, Moscow, Bangalore, Jakarta and Lagos. These consumer insights anchor the scenarios in today’s world and increase their plausibility.

In one scenario, a true “everywhere commerce” sees a strong global economy and a stable middle class driving consumption. Consumers will receive their purchases in less than 24 hours and measured in minutes. In a different scenario, a highly developed digital culture in which almost all products will be sold online and consumers will receive support by avatars has evolved.

A possible crisis scenario also plays out, outlining how worldwide consumption patterns develop after the global economy has suffered another financial crisis and energy and raw material prices have risen considerably. Under these circumstances, people could adopt a Do-It-Yourself mentality instead and sharing models instead of the “all new” approach.

All scenarios and contributions have in common that the competition in electronic retail, whether on global, national or regional level, will become more intense. Jürgen Gerdes: “We don’t know for certain what the world will look like in 2025, but the study’s various scenarios show how rapid the global retail sector – online and offline – is changing and that logistics will be a focal point of these change processes.”

You can download your own copy of the study, and see just what these four scenarios predict what retailers will need to have in store in the next decade.