Danner: “Nico Rosberg will be world champion”

In the final of our 3-part interview, DHL’s F1 Expert and former F1 driver, Christian Danner, makes a surprising prediction: “I think Nico Rosberg is going to be world champion.”

(Find Parts 1 & 2 of the interview here.)

DHL: Of all the teams competing this year, who do you think might surprise us come opening weekend in Melbourne?

Christian Danner: At the moment I’d say you’re going to see Williams and Force India up there close to Mercedes, and then the rest the field. I have to be quite frank with you, at this point it doesn’t look like anyone who is not running a Mercedes-Benz engine is going to be anywhere close – so at the beginning I don’t think we’ll see too many surprises. But, of course, I could be eating my words come Melbourne. We’ll just have to wait and see.

“I think we’re going to see a lot of retirements in the first race.”

DHL: All of the teams will be on the starting grid in Melbourne though, right?

Danner: Yes, they’ll all be there and they’ll all start the race, but who will make it to the finish line is another question. I think we’re going to see a lot of retirements in the first race.

DHL: So to sum up, we should be watching anyone who is driving a Mercedes engine and we’ll see what the others can throw together by Melbourne.

Danner: Exactly. Whether or not they can catch up, I don’t know. The problems are exceptionally complicated. That said, all the teams have exceptional engineers. But whether or not they can catch up in a couple of weeks’ time, I can’t tell you. I hope so but it’s unlikely.

And they won’t have much time to implement what they learned in Melbourne because Malaysia is only two weeks later.

Video: "It's a Great Feeling" - A Look at the 2014 DHL Fastest Lap Award

DHL: Do you think the technical changes will affect the fastest lap in any way this year?

Danner: Oh definitely. Last year the ingredients needed to set the fastest lap were a fresh set of soft tires and a light car – low on fuel, that is. This year you have to have enough fuel in the car and enough battery energy storage to actually get the maximum power out of the car plus a fresh set of tires toward the end of the race. So there are some additional parameters involved this year.

We’ll see exactly how this will change the dynamic. In testing we saw the Mercedes-Benz engine with a top speed advantage of 20 to 25 km over everyone else so you can imagine who is in the best position to set fastest lap. (Laughs)

The ingredients for setting the fastest lap have changed this year, says Danner.

DHL: So again, we should have our eyes on the Mercedes drivers for the fastest lap in Melbourne.

Danner: Yes, it will be very interesting to see how Lewis and Nico are going to get along, not to mention the McLarens with the new kid Kevin Magnussen. Then Massa in the Williams and Hulkenberg in the Force India. It’s going to be interesting. There are some good guys out there that might just be good enough for the prize. It’s exciting stuff.

DHL: Assuming that Red Bull gets its act together, do you think Vettel will be fighting for the fastest lap trophy this year? We all know that he enjoys not only taking checkered flags but also setting fastest laps. If his car is performing, do you think we’re going to see that side of Seb again this year?

Danner: Well, it’s very simple: what you just mentioned about Sebastian you might as well also say about Lewis, Nico and Felipe. They’re all the same. (Laughs). There’s no difference – they all want the fastest lap. Sebastian was the one who made a concerted effort to set the most fastest laps, but as a driver when you are in the position to do it – you do it. There is no difference among the drivers in that regard. They all want it. And that’s good because the fastest lap is something that means something to a Formula 1 driver so the fastest lap trophy is actually something that is very valuable to them. They want it. They want to compete to be the fastest.

“There is always a story behind fastest lap.”

DHL: You’ve been quoted as saying that there is always a story behind the Fastest Lap. Why is that?

Danner: There is always a story behind fastest lap because of what it takes to set one. It takes an empty car or light car. Then you need to be on a fresh set of tires so even a mid-stream car at the end of the race that has to pit for another set of tires can actually set the fastest lap although it is not the car that takes the checkered flag. And that’s why there are always stories to be told. You know, this year the power output of these new power units is quite changeable, you have to be careful in how you are actually using the power that is available for you without burning too much fuel and without destroying your battery packs without overloading the harvest of the ERS systems and all that so there are a lot of stories to be told – even more than in the past.

DHL: Let’s sum up the preseason. What do you think are the top things we should be looking out for the season?

Danner: Well, let’s see: #1 is Mercedes – I’m talking about Hamilton and Rosberg – going to maintain their huge advantage over the rest of the field once the season starts. #2 It’s going to be interesting to what who is going to be the number one silver arrow driver – will it be Lewis or Nico? Everything after that is wide open.

The next thing to watch out for is the driver pairings. Behind the Mercedes there are the McLarens with the new kid Magnussen. Then there is Force India and Williams, both of which have new drivers, so I’ll be keeping my eyes on them. The surprises there just might be who is going to prove that they have the upper hand in terms of teammates and teamwork: Hulkenberg over Perez or Magnussen over Button – very interesting. Will the surprise the Magnussen? I don’t know – we’ll just have to wait and see. You see, it’s all pretty open behind the silver arrows, and that’s what I’m going to be watching for.

“Actually you can mail me down on who’s going to be world champion. I think Nico Rosberg is going to be world champion.”

DHL: It’s probably harder in this preseason than any other, but can you – or do you want to – make any predictions for this season, at least the first half of the season?

Danner: Actually you can mail me down on who’s going to be world champion. I think Nico Rosberg is going to be world champion.

DHL: Wow! That was unexpected.

Danner: Why not, why not say something. I might be right, I might be wrong. But I think I’m right. (smiles) Of course it’s difficult at this time of the year with so much development coming to make a prediction before season in which so many changes have taken place. But it’s a gut feeling. So there you go: Nico is going to be world champion, end of story.

DHL: Regarding your fastest lap predictions, we all know it is almost impossible to predict these. Do you feel like your job has gotten any harder this year?

Danner: Much harder. Making the predictions and doing the reviews afterwards will be a lot harder this year. Now everything is different, everything is new and there’s a lot of development. So things will be changing race by race and so yes it’s going to be a lot more difficult.

DHL: Well, we’re looking forward to your videos and will be watching for them. Thanks so much for speaking with us today.

Danner: My pleasure. See you in Melbourne.